Maryland SREC Market: Supply and Demand Report
By Tamara Kamis
After nearly a year of implementing the Maryland Brighter Tomorrow Act, where does the Maryland SREC market stand?
The Brighter Tomorrow Act was designed to jumpstart solar construction in Maryland through increased SREC values. Beginning on January 1, 2025, eligible new solar facilities could apply for Brighter Tomorrow Act status. A multiplier was implemented for SRECs from eligible systems, creating a potential value of up to 1.5 times the market rate. Analyzing the Maryland SREC market’s current supply and demand sheds light on the early impact of the Brighter Tomorrow Act.
The enclosed supply and demand analysis shows a mixed but improved picture of market conditions. While we project a significantly undersupplied market in 2025, the build rate has increased. This is a positive sign as Maryland stakeholders work to address the undersupplied market. Xpansiv Managed Solutions projects that the higher value of Brighter Tomorrow SRECs will reduce the need for solar alternative compliance payments (SACPs), directing more compensation to solar system owners.
Current Maryland SREC Supply and Demand
Maryland SREC generation has not caught up with RPS requirements, so the market is currently undersupplied. While the 2025 projected Maryland SREC requirement is 3,902,640 SRECs, the projected SREC supply is 2,387,077 and additional compliance value from Brighter Tomorrow capacity is 60,396 SRECs. As a result, we project that the 2025 Maryland SREC market will have a 1,455,167 SREC undersupply.
Maryland’s solar build rates have accelerated over the last year. The last 12-month (LTM) average build rate from August 2024 to July 2025 was 28.44 MW/month, a 56.6% increase year over year and the last 6-month (LSM) average build rate increased further, rising to 33.58 MW/month. Despite this positive trend, our analysis projects an undersupplied market in 2025, 2026, and 2027.
Recent policy changes add context to Maryland’s undersupplied SREC market. From 2016 to early 2019, a surplus of SRECs drove down Maryland SREC prices. In response, Maryland sharply increased RPS targets via the Maryland Clean Energy Jobs Act while reducing the SACP level. The build rate did not initially keep up with the increased RPS targets, leading to an undersupplied market. Interconnection reform and solar permitting automation efforts seek to address potential barriers to solar construction in Maryland.
Brighter Tomorrow Act Reduces the Need for SACP Payments
In addition to supporting build rates, the 1.5x multiplier for Brighter Tomorrow Act RECs reduces the amount of SACP funds needed to meet the Renewable Portfolio Standard requirements. The table below shows projected SACP savings generated by this additional compliance value.
| Compliance Year | BT Uplift RECs (Additional Compliance Value Due to BT Status) | SACP Rates | SACP Savings |
| 2025 | 60,396 | $55 | $3,321,780 |
| 2026 | 126,091 | $45 | $5,674,095 |
| 2027 | 179,973 | $35 | $6,299,055 |
| Projected Total Saved | $15,294,930 |
Our BT uplift projections are based on the 2025 build rate of BT capacity compared to standard SREC eligible capacity. Specifically, 117.627 MW of Maryland BT solar capacity was registered in GATS with a 2025 date in service, representing 26.31% of this year’s Maryland solar capacity additions. This rate was applied to the assumed build rates in future years.
As Brighter Tomorrow REC prices approximate 1.4 times the price of a Maryland REC, system owners of Brighter Tomorrow registered systems receive larger payments than they would otherwise. Because of the additional compliance value of BT RECs and greater REC values, more of utilities’ RPS payments are directed toward systems owners. As a result, the RPS program’s goals of directing SREC compensation to solar system owners are better achieved.
Future of the Maryland SREC Market
While Maryland’s SREC market is projected to remain undersupplied through 2027, there are many factors that could influence build rate and the market share of BT capacity. We will continue to monitor the impact of the Brighter Tomorrow Act and broader industry trends.
Please reach out to the Xpansiv® Managed Solutions™ Team with comments or questions at brokerage@xpansiv.com. We will continue to provide new information when it becomes relevant, updating our analysis to support your decision-making.
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Maryland SREC Market Update Dec 2025